Kickstats: What's the Best Day to End?

Kickstats: What's the Best Day to End?

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Introduction

Not too long ago, I answered the question "What's the best day of the week to launch on Kickstarter?". In this post, I'd like to cover the most natural follow up to that: "What's the best day to end a Kickstarter campaign?"

Arguments

Although it's not as hotly debated as the best day to launch, it's still pretty easy to find opinions and arguments on what day is the best day to end a campaign.

General consensus is that Thursday is the best day to end. In fact, Kickstarter itself claims that the best launch/end combination is Tuesday/Thursday, although they offered up no real reason for why that might be.

Personally, I don't think what day you end on really makes any difference. If Thursday has the highest success rates, I'd guess that's only because of how closely associated it is with Tuesday launches and the self-fulfilling prophecy attached to them. Of course, what I think doesn't really matter - let's look at the data!

Analysis

Thursdays are the most popular day to end Kickstarter campaigns, which isn't too surprising.

Kickstarter popularity of campaign end days

The more important metric, however, is what the success rates are for each end day. Here we see that Thursdays do, in fact, have higher success rates. However, those rates could be due to any number of factors that have nothing to do with choosing that day to end. If we don't account for those factors, we may end up falsely attributing success to something that makes no real difference.

Kickstarter success rates by campaign end day

What are those confounding factors? Well, they turned out to be the same ones that were confounding success rates vs launch day. I won't go into great detail here, since I already did in that post, but the confounding factors I was able to identify were:

  • Day of the week of the campaign's launch
  • Proportion of campaigns that were virtually guaranteed success
  • Proportion of campaigns that failed to reach even 10% funding
  • Proportion of campaigns that came from first-time creators

So, after accounting for all of those factors, what day ends up being the best day to end a Kickstarter campaign?

Results

Kickstarter success rates by campaign end day

Very similar to our launch day findings, there really isn't a clear leader for the best day to end a campaign. However, we can say with 95% confidence that Wednesday is, in fact, better to end on than Friday. We know that because the confidence interval (the purple shaded region) for Wednesday and Friday do not overlap at all.

As for the other days? We really can't say, because their shaded regions overlap at least by a small amount. So, for instance, because Thursday's interval overlaps both Wednesday's and Friday's, we don't know if Wednesday is better than both Thursday and Friday, or if Wednesday and Thursday are both better than Friday. We're just not sure exactly sure where Thursday falls. The same goes for the other days. All we can say is that, if you have a choice between ending on Wednesday or ending on Friday, Wednesday would be the better option.

Now, we've shown that Wednesday is a better day to end than Friday. The question now is: by how much? For that, we can again turn to the confidence intervals. We know that Wednesday should be better than Friday by, at least, the difference between Wednesday's lower bound and Friday's upper bound, and no more than the difference between Wednesday's upper bound and Friday's lower bound.

What is that range? Anywhere from 0.3 to 10.0 percentage points.

Disappointing? Well, sometimes significant findings aren't necessarily substantial findings.

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