Did you know that 62% of Kickstarter campaigns come from first-time creators? With so many projects coming from us newbies, it makes me wonder how much a creator's chance of success changes with the number of campaigns they've launched.
What's my first-time chance of success?
Well, that's a difficult question to answer, since estimating chances of success for individual projects is an incredibly complex endeavor. I'd like to work up to a model that does that, but we're not ready for that yet. For now, I can give you the overall success rate for creators who launched their very first campaign. This should at least give you an idea of what your campaign is up against.
Disclaimer: Data is for projects launched from Dec 2019 - Feb 2020
To be honest, this actually isn't all that surprising to me. If it's true that Kickstarter's success rate on the whole hovers around 54% or so (year-to-date, it's at 56%), it makes sense that first-time creators would be significantly lower than that.
What this tells me is that there's a pretty tough road ahead for us creators, and we're certainly not guaranteed success. So if your first campaign fails, just remember that you're right there with the rest of the 63% of creators who failed their first time too.
But that leads right into the next question. What if my first project does fail?
What if my first Kickstarter campaign failed?
What if this isn't your first Kickstarter campaign? Maybe it's your second... and your first one failed. Will that stain your chance of success for this one? It seems like it would, but let's take a look at the numbers.
So, yes, it does look like failing will hurt the chances of success for your next campaign, but it's not a crazy drop, and if you can get even one success behind you, you'll be right back in the running. I think the lesson here is "don't give up!"
What Are Your Thoughts?
So what are your thoughts? Do you have any lessons learned from failed campaigns? What do you think has helped your successful campaigns the most? Let me know in the comments!